The new pole results

I have to laugh each time I look at the new pole that asks "Which parent do you think is going to be more strict". Looks like Don is going to be the mean one!!!!! LOL

lady bugs

Today I found another lady bug. It was on the light in the kitchen. could this be telling me something????? IF you have any questions about lady bugs and why I am making a big deal over it please read in posts on the right hand side of the page " Lady bug" it will explain.

New pole

New pole please vote: This one should be interesting to see how this one turns out!!!!!!!!!

Pole results:
Started: July 16th 2006 Ended: Sept 22, 2007
Total number of Votes: 20

Who do you think will spoil Makayla more

Donald ( daddy)................. 3 votes........15%
Dorrine ( mommy) ............7 votes.........35%
Karey and Les....................3 votes.........15%
(Donalds mom and dad)
Gil and Sue.........................2 votes.........10%
(Dorrines mom and dad)
Nancy.................................2 votes.........10%
Gail......................................0 votes........0%
Scott and Steph.................0 votes........0%
Other..................................3 votes........15%

Grandma and Grandpa Smetak

This is a space where Grandma and Grandpa Smetak can write to Makayla or post something they would the family or friends to read.

Nana and Papa Keene

This is a spot where Nana and Papa Keene can write to Makayla or post something for the family or friends to read.

New Referral Predictions

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Sept referrals are in

Referrals are in. CCAA (china affairs) gave out referrals through Feb 9th, 2006. A great 11 days worth. We are logged in March 22, 2006, so I am happy we are getting much closer to our date. To see the chart closer just double clink on it. We only have 41 days of log in dates before ours. WWWWOOOOOOWWWWOOOO!!!!!!!!













What does referrals mean?
Referrals are given out once a month from China (CCAA china affairs) When your paperwork is sent over to China they go through your paperwork and log in into a computer and check for updates if needed. Once you are logged in CCAA gives you a log in date ours is March 22, 2006. Everyone that has a log in date before us gets a referral before us. Once you are logged in CCAA then sends your paperwork over to a different room where they go into detail into your paperwork, they sometimes ask for more information or deny couples for certain reasons. This is called an audit. Once you have been audited they send your paperwork to the matching room to sit til it is your turn to get a referral. We got notified Feb 3, 2007 that we were audited and everything was approved. Now we sit til it is our turn for a referral.
Once it is our turn for a referral we will receive a package that includes pictures of our child with information on background, size, approx date of birth, medical evaluations ect. We have approx 24 hours after receiving a referral to accept the child or not. If not then we go back into the waiting pool for approx. 3 months. If you have any questions about why it is taking so long please read updates on main page in posts " why is it taking so long to get Makayla" or "Referrals and what they mean"

Here is new predictions on upcoming referrals.
Double click on Referral chart to read. First let me start by explaining what referrals mean. When you paper work is finished with all documents needed to request a child from China they are put together in a file and mailed out to China. China then looks through them and log you in and you receive a date. Ours is March 22, 2006. Then everyone with a date before you gets a referral before you do. What I mean by referral is a Picture of a child and background ( if any) and medical papers . You then have to decide if you want the child or not. Currently as of today's date Sept 23 ,2007 CCAA China affairs has given out children whose has a log in date before November 25th ,2005. Yes almost two years ago. If you still have any questions about how this is done please read in posts on the right hand side of the site " Why is it taking so long to get Makayla" and please read "referrals and what they mean".


I really don't know how far the CCAA China affairs are going to get each month, these are only based on my predictions. Now that Nov 2005 is almost done it should speed up. How I can explain this is by a certain web site that has a pole that everyone that is waiting for a referral from China can vote for their log in date this, this is done by the day. There is a drop in votes after Nov 2005 .
Nov 2005 having450 votes
Dec 2005 having 256 votes
Jan 2006 having 232 votes
Feb 2006 having 195 votes
March 2006 having 365 votes
April 2006 having 219 votes

In the previous months I have been counting by days how many votes they do and surprising they are pretty close to each other,. For example

In May 2006 they referred From Oct 27th through Nov 1st the total number of votes: 141
In June 2006 they referred from Nov 2nd through Nov 6th , the total number of votes: 148
In July 2006 they referred from Nov 7th through Nov 13th , the total number of votes: 159
In Aug 2006 they referred from Nov 14th through Nov. 21st, the total number of votes: 139
In Sept. 2006 they referred from Nov 22 through Nov 25th , the total number of votes: 134

on average over the last 5 months it is 144 votes per month. If this trend continues than this is the way that the referrals will fall.
Oct 2007 referrals will get through Dec 6th , 2005
Nov 2007 referrals will get through Dec 15th , 2005
Dec 2007 referrals will get through Dec 28th , 2005
Jan 2008 referrals will get through Jan 12th , 2006
Feb 2008 referrals will get through Jan 29th , 2006
March 2008 referrals will get through Feb 13th, 2006
April 2008 referrals will get through March 1, 2006
May 2008 referrals will get through March 11, 2006
June 2008 referrals will get through March 22, 2006
AS you notice by using these numbers they fall in line with my chart on referral predictions in the good case scenario within a day or two. We will have to wait for a couple of months of referrals to see if this trend seems to work.

Plus as many can see , I love to work with numbers. Dorrine

Sept. referrals are in

Sept referrals are in and I am very disappointed at how far they got. The CCAA china affairs only referred child whose log in date was from Nov 22nd 2005 to Nov 25th, 2005. That is only 4 days of referrals. At this rate it will be two more years till we get our referral. If you have any questions about referrals or why is it taking so long to get Makayla please read in posts : Why is it taking so long to get Makayla " Or " Referrals" .



As you can tell from previous months my predictions are even worse than I expected since June 2006 when I made the predictions. So this month I am going to do another prediction chart. This chart will include what Good case scenario Mid case scenario and of course worse case scenario. Back on 2004 and part of 2005 CCAA china affairs would give out a month of referrals every month and in the last four months they have only done a total of 25 days total.

Good case scenario

June log in dates through Nov 16th 2005
Referrals for June only got to nov 07, 2005
July log in dates through Dec 3 th 2005
Referrals for June only got to Nov 14th, 2005
Aug log in dates through Dec 25th 2006
Referrals for Aug only got to Nov 21th , 2005
Sept log in dates through Jan 4th 2007
Referrals for Sept only got to Nov 25th, 2005

October log in dates through Jan 23rd 2006
Nov log in dates through Feb 24th 2006
Dec log in dates through March 10th 2006
Jan 2008log in dates through March 25th , 2006
We travel late Feb early April 2007


Bad case scenario

June log in dates through Nov 10th 2005
Worse than expected June referrals only got to Nov 7, 2005
July log in dates through Nov 23rd 2005
Worse than expected June referrals only got to Nov 14th , 2005
Aug log in dates through Dec 3 rd 2005
Worse than expected Aug referrals only got to Nov, 21st, 2005
Sept log in dates through Dec 21st 2006
Worse than expected Sept only got to Nov 25th, 2005
Oct log in dates through Jan 5th 2006
Nov log in dates through Jan 21th 2006
Dec log in dates through Feb 5th 2006
Jan 2008 log in dates through Feb 28th 2006
Feb 2008 log in dates through March 12th 2006
March 2008 long in dates through March 23rd 2006
We travel 5 weeks later